Graphite: Is This the Hottest Commodity on the Aussie Market Right Now?

Resource investing is a bit like the world of fashion.

The latest ‘hot commodity’ trend changes quicker than you can say ‘mullet’.

Of course there are evergreen commodities, like coal, iron ore and copper, which never go out of style.

They are mainstays. You can be sure coal stocks will look good for the next few years. Just like a good pair of jeans … as long as that ‘waistband doesn’t shrink’.

And just as in fashion, there are those commodities that become hot property overnight.


There is usually a reason why this happens. For example, China putting the brakes on ‘rare earths‘ exports, or Russian palladium stockpiles running out, and putting the media spotlight on that commodity. Or maybe there’s a novelty factor that gives the story some pizzazz, which helps tip the idea into the mainstream. Like lithium for example.

I’m not saying there’s no investment case for rare earths, palladium, or lithium. Far from it. In fact, palladium looks like it could be a great trade this year.

The problem is when the market gets carried away with the idea of a ‘hot commodity‘, the stock prices run too far.

Of course, you can trade these movements. And very profitably too.

The trick is to get in at the start – before a commodity becomes ‘hot’ – and then to try to get out at the top. This is easier said than done.

Take rare earths. This was probably the ‘hot commodity’ of 2009 when China started limiting exports. The investment case was that any company outside China with rare earths stood to make good money, as China’s limited exports pushed rare earth prices up.

The share price of one of the best rare earths stocks, Lynas (ASX:LYC), increased five-fold from $0.50 to $2.50 between April 2010 and April 2011. Great work if you sold at the top.


But a year later Lynas has fallen from $2.50 to almost $1.00.

There are two ingredients to the emergence in the new ‘hot commodity’.

One, the story – the thing that gives people a reason to invest – which we’ve just talked about.

The second thing you need is investors to be bullish.

Which is why when the markets turned up after Christmas, the first contender for Hot Commodity of 2012 emerged…

Graphite – the Commodity of 2012?

Graphite has the requisite wow factor.

Demand is strong. Forget pencils and squash racquets. A third of it is used to make equipment, like crucibles for foundries. Industry also uses it increasingly in pebble-bed nuclear reactors, and fuel cells.

Demand is also rising thanks to an increasing demand from the production of lithium ion batteries. These batteries bizarrely contain more graphite than anything else, including lithium. Less than 10% of the world’s graphite production goes to lithium ion batteries. Demand from battery producers is increasing rapidly, and should be half of global use by the end of this decade.

An exciting graphite polymer, ‘graphene’, seems to have some unique properties that the electronics industry is getting hot under the collar about. It’s still early days, but graphene demand may increase demand in the future.

The result is the price of pure graphite has now tripled in 10 years. Unless China starts increasing production and exports, the price will keep rising.

In total, the graphite industry produced about 1.3 million tonnes of the stuff last year. At current prices, this makes it 10 times bigger than the rare earths market.

But analysts reckon global production will need to DOUBLE to at least 2.6 million tonnes by 2020. That will take a lot of new graphite mines, so there should be an investment opportunity here.

In terms of production, much like rare earths, China is in control. And graphite has come to the market’s attention now China is reducing production and exports. Around 70% of the world’s graphite comes from China, so this is a problem. Other exporters like India, Brazil and Canada make up a small amount of the market and couldn’t compensate for anything but the smallest shortfall.

This is why the US and Europe put graphite on the critical elements list. The UK’s Royal Geological Society now ranks graphite just behind rare earths for supply risk.

The Investment Opportunity in Graphite

So graphite stocks have been taking off.

The Canadian stock market is the largest resource market in the world, so there is normally a bigger selection of stocks in each commodity. The story has been playing out on the Canadian market a bit longer than it has on the Aussie market.

The ‘Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada’ Mining conference, or ‘PDAC’ took place in Canada recently. 50,000 people turned up – that’s a huge conference by any measure. Everyone I spoke to that went said ‘graphite’ was the buzzword.

No wonder the market is now paying attention. Stock prices of some graphite stocks are flying.

For example, Canadian graphite stock Focus Metals (CVE:FMS) is up 1163% in 18 months.

Canada has quite a few graphite stocks. Back in the 1980s, graphite prices were high and the Canadians started building dozens of graphite mines. China then flooded the market with graphite in the 1990s to suppress prices. So the Canadians mothballed these mines. Now high prices are back, these mines are coming back to life!

Another Canadian stock, Energizer Resources (TSE:EGZ) has gained 157.1% in just three months. This stock’s main project is based off the East Coast of Africa, on the island of Madagascar.

Could good Australian market graphite stocks take off like the Canadians?

We are a bit behind the Canadians, but the sector is warming up quickly, with a few stocks doubling or tripling already this year. This is something I’m keeping a close eye on.

What to Look For When Investing in Graphite Stocks

When a ‘hot commodity’ takes off, all the stocks tend to go up with it.

But to pick the ones that will go the distance, some research is needed. One thing to watch in the graphite market specifically is what type of graphite the company has.

Because there is graphite … and there is graphite.

Graphite comes as ‘flake’ or ‘vein’ types, which are the best quality. This is the graphite used for batteries and pebble-bed nuclear reactors, which sells for up to $3,000 / tonne. Then there is ‘amorphous’ graphite, a lower quality product, which sells for about $1,000 / tonne.

Probably the big risk to the graphite market is that China increases exports to pull prices down and kill the competition, as it did in the 1990s.

It is a risk, but there are two problems with this argument. First, most analysts reckon that graphite supply is so tight now, that new demand from new applications would easily soak up any new supply.

Secondly, China’s graphite is mostly the ‘amorphous’ type, and this is no good for the new applications driving demand growth.

So the case for graphite looks solid.

And the story has only been rolling in earnest in the Aussie market since January. Looking at the length of the initial bull-run in stocks for other ‘hot commodities’, graphite stocks could have at least a year or more of gains ahead of them yet.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

via moneymorning.com.au

You, Your Family and Your Wealth

Today we show you how to help build your family’s wealth.

Remember, we aren’t God (in case you thought we were).

We can’t tell you exactly what will happen and when it will happen. And we can’t even guarantee our strategy will work.

All we can do is give you our best analysis and advice based on what we know of the markets and market behaviour.

Whether you take the advice is up to you.


We know only a few will follow it. The rest will decide to leave it for another day… or conclude we’re crazy and tell us to stop bothering them with our paranoid ramblings.

How do we know that? Because we’ve had first-hand experience of it…

One in 247

We get letters all the time asking to be unsubscribed from Money Morning. So we unsubscribe them. And we wish them well.

As for those who leave things for another day. We’ve seen that too.

At the “After America” investment symposium we asked attendees to download and read two short essays and one short extract. We suggested they download these during the lunch break. And read them over the buffet sandwiches and mini chicken pies.

It was easy. All the essays are available to download free from the Internet. Anyone with an Internet-enabled mobile device could get the documents in seconds.

The essays and extracts are:

I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read

Richard Maybury’s “Cult of the Masterminds” essay

Chapter 1.3 of Murray Rothbard’s Man, Economy & State (the Ham Sandwich)

The next day, during the two breakout sessions, we asked how many had downloaded and read them.

One lady raised her hand… out of 247 attendees.

Does that tell you anything? Maybe 246 people just had no interest in reading these essays. Although we don’t think that’s true as many said they would get around to it.

No. The point is, it’s easy to put something off. The procrastinator’s mantra is: Why do today, what you can do tomorrow?

That same attitude infests the brains of many Aussie investors. They figure if they don’t do something today or the next day, it doesn’t matter, because worst case, at least the government will help.

Wrong. Ask any pensioner today who can’t rub two pennies together, what life is like on the pension. They’ll tell you they wished they’d done more.

Of course, it’s not all their fault. They just fell for the government spin that they’d be cared for in old age.

But the fact is, the government won’t look after you. The only one who can look after you… is you.

Help Your Family Build Wealth

One attendee at the After America investment symposium told us he was worried about the future for his two daughters. He said he wanted to give his daughters some books to read so they could understand what’s happening to the world economy.

His daughters are in their 20s and 30s.

Our advice was simple. He should suggest they read a couple of books (Henry Hazlitt’s, Economics in One Lesson was one of them). But if they don’t look interested, don’t press it.

As we say, the only one who can look after your wealth is you. If your family members choose not to look after their wealth, you can’t force them.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t help… subtly.

If you can afford it, why not save for yourself and save for them too. Even if they’re all grown up. Obviously, it’s better to start when they’re young, but in reality, it’s never too late.

You can start by saving money in a bank account for them. But that shouldn’t be the end of it. If you believe in sound money, then give them sound money as a gift.

We don’t mean for their birthday or Christmas. Just an “I-thought-you’d-like-this” kind of gift.

Buy them a silver coin from the Perth Mint or any bullion dealer. At today’s prices, a one-ounce coin is $40-$50. Tell them it’s pure silver. They’ll enjoy it. And chances are they’ve never seen a silver coin before. So they’ll be curious.

One day (who knows when), they may even ask you how much it’s worth. Or how it can be worth $40 when it only has $5 printed on the coin.

Then you can start explaining the value of money. The important part is, if you do it this way then you’re talking about it on their terms. They won’t see you as an old crank, hoarding your silver coins under the floorboards.

Again, don’t stop there. Keep saving.

It Shouldn’t Be Illegal to Invest

When you’ve saved $500, think about opening a stockbroking account. You can buy shares in a company for them. If they’re under 18, you’ll need to hold the shares in your name.

Only a government would make it illegal for under-18?s to invest. We guess they hope the longer they can prevent people from investing, the more likely they are to not want to invest… and therefore look to the government for support.

Now, as far as stocks are concerned, our shtick is small-cap stocks. But for the first investment, we’d suggest something less exciting. Say, a good dividend stock.

If the stock pays a 5% yield, that’s $25 a year they’ll get in extra pocket money. It’s not a lot. But it’s a start.

Remember, thanks to government laws (supported by trade unions) that make it hard for youngsters to get part time work (minimum hours and minimum wages), they need to come up with new ways to earn a living.

So, rather than giving them pocket money, why not invest a few hundred (or thousand) dollars for them. And let one of Australia’s blue-chip companies pay pocket money to your kids instead?

That’s not a bad way to teach them about saving and earning an income.

And maybe one day they’ll ask why or how the company keeps sending them money… for doing nothing. That’s your chance to explain about capitalism and profits and how this is what creates wealth and prosperity.

The Next Generation of Entrepreneurs

With any luck, you’ll help nurture the next generation of entrepreneurs. Or at the very least, a generation that has learned about how markets work and how to make money.

So that by the time they become responsible for themselves, they’ll know the path to prosperity doesn’t involve relying on the government.

If they’re already adults, think how great it would feel when the light bulb goes on and they tell you they finally “get it”.

Bottom line, it’s about getting yourself in order first. Once you’ve done that, you can help your family get in order too.

Of course, if you can’t be bothered or you think the government will look after you, then good luck. Let us know how you get on.

But if you don’t want to risk that. Then take our advice. What do you have to lose? If you take care of yourself and help take care of your family, you can be sure the wealth will follow…

Cheers.
Kris

via moneymorning.com.au

Little Steps: 100 Great Tips For Saving Money For Those Just Getting Started

pennyYesterday, I discussed how anyone can turn their financial life around if they just take that first step – the first step is always the hardest one. After that, you start taking more and more little steps and before you know it, your financial life is getting better and better.

What follows is a list of 100 more steps to take. Each of these tactics are simple little moves you can make to improve your financial situation. Some of them take just a few minutes, others might take an hour or two, some of them require a bit of regular effort, but they’re all incredibly simple – anyone can do them. Each of them also save significant money, especially over the long haul, and when combined together these tips can save you a lot of money now.

Obviously, not all of these tips will apply to everyone. Just go through the list and find ten or fifteen that do apply to you and use them in your life – you’ll quickly find yourself saving some serious scratch.

1. Switch your bank accounts to a bank that respects you. You shouldn’t be spending your hard-earned money on maintenance fees – you also should be earning some serious interest on your checking and savings accounts. I use ING Direct as my primary bank – I earn roughly 3% on my checking account and 3.4% on my savings account and they’ve never dinged me with a fee. Here’s a guide on how to make that switch.

tv2. Turn off the television. One big way to save money is to watch less television. There are a lot of financial benefits to this: less exposure to guilt-inducing ads, more time to focus on other things in life, less electrical use, and so on. It’s great to unwind in the evening, but seek another hobby to do that.

3. Turn a critical eye to your “collections.” Most people collect something – what do you collect? Is it something that consistently brings you joy? Or is it something that you just do out of habit at this point? Does the collection itself have value? Could you perhaps “trim the fat” from this collection by getting rid of duplicates or getting rid of the items you no longer use? Also, could you perhaps cut down on your spending on that hobby? Focus on trimming the things you don’t feel strongly about – if you dig into things that bother you, you’re going to eventually relapse.

4. Sign up for every free customer rewards program you can. Even if you rarely shop at that place, having a rewards card for that place will eventually net you some coupons and discounts. Here’s the basic game plan for maximizing these programs: create a Gmail address just for these mailings, collect every card you can, and then check that account for extra coupons whenever you’re ready to shop.

5. Make your own gifts instead of buying stuff from the store. You can make food mixes, candles, bread, cookies, soap, and all kinds of other things at home quite easily and inexpensively. These make spectacular gifts for others because they involve your homemade touch, plus quite often they’re consumable, meaning they don’t wind up filling someone’s closet with junk. Even better – include a personal handwritten note with the gift. This will make it even more special than anything you could possibly buy down at the mall, plus it saves you money.

6. Master the thirty day rule. Whenever you’re considering making an unnecessary purchase, wait thirty days and then ask yourself if you still want that item. Quite often, you’ll find that the urge to buy has passed and you’ll have saved yourself some money by simply waiting. If you want, you can even keep a “thirty day list” where you write down the item and the day you’ll reconsider it, but I prefer just to keep this one in my head – that way, I often just forget about the unimportant things.

7. Write a list before you go shopping – and stick to it. One should never go into a store without a strong idea of what one will be buying while in there. Make a careful plan of what you’ll buy before you go, then stick strictly to that list when you go to the store. Don’t put anything in the cart that’s not on the list, no matter how tempting, and you’ll come out of the store saving a bundle.

8. Invite friends over instead of going out. Almost every activity at home is less expensive than going out. Invite some friends over and have a cookout or a potluck meal, then play some cards and have a few drinks. Everyone will have fun, the cost will be low, and the others will likely reciprocate not long afterwards.

9. Instead of throwing out some damaged clothing, repair it instead. Don’t toss out a shirt because of a broken button – sew a new one on with some closely-matched thread. Don’t toss out pants because of a hole in them – put in a patch of some sort and save them for times when you’re working around the house. Simple sewing can be done by anyone – it just takes a few minutes and it saves a lot of money by keeping you from buying new clothes when you don’t really need to.

10. Don’t spend big money entertaining your children. Most children, especially young ones, can be entertained very cheaply. Buy them an end roll of newspaper from your local paper and let their creativity run wild. Make a game out of ordinary stuff around the house, like tossing pennies into a jar, even. Realize that what your children want most of all is your time, not your stuff, and you’ll find money in your pocket and joy in your heart.

11. Call your credit card company and ask for a rate reduction. Take any of your credit cards that are carrying a balance, flip them over, and call the number on the back. Tell them that you want an interest rate reduction or you’ll take your business elsewhere. If the first person you talk to won’t do it, ask to talk to a supervisor. If you have a $5,000 balance, even a 3% rate reduction saves you $150 a year.

12. Clean out your closet. Go through your closets and try to get rid of some of the stuff in there. You can have a yard sale with it, take it to a consignment shop, or even donate it for the tax deduction – all of which turn old stuff you don’t want to use any more into money in your pocket. Not only that, it’s often a psychological load off your mind to clean out your closets.

13. Buy video games that have a lot of replay value – and don’t acquire new ones until you’ve mastered what you have. My video game buying habits have changed quite a bit since my “game of the week” days. Now, I focus on games that can be played over and over and over again, and I focus on mastering the games that I buy. Good targets include puzzle games and long, involved quest games – they maximize the value of your gaming dollar.

14. Drink more water. Not only does drinking plenty of water have great health benefits, water drinking has financial benefits, too. Drink a big glass of water before each meal, and not only will you digest it better, you won’t eat as much, saving on the ol’ food bill. You’ll also find yourself feeling a bit better as you begin to get adequately hydrated (most Americans are perpetually somewhat dehydrated).

food15. Cut back on the convenience foods – fast foods, microwave meals, and so on. Instead of eating fast food or just nuking some prepackaged food when you get home, try making some simple and healthy replacements that you can take with you. An hour’s worth of preparation one weekend can give you a ton of cheap and handy meals that will end up saving you a lot of cash and not eat into your time when you’re busy.

16. Give up expensive habits, like cigarettes, alcohol, and drugs. Those habits cause money to flow away from you with nothing in return. Call up your fortitude and work hard to kick the habits and you’ll find that money staying in your pocket instead of burning up and floating away.

17. Make a quadruple batch of a casserole. Casseroles are nice, easy dishes to prepare, but on busy nights, it’s often still easier to just order some take-out or eat out or just plop a prepackaged meal in the oven. Instead, the next time you make a casserole, make four batches of it and put the other three in the freezer. Then, the next time you need a quick meal for the family, grab one of those batches and just heat it up – easy as can be. Even better, doing this allows you to buy the ingredients in bulk, making each casserole cheaper than it would be ordinarily – and far, far cheaper than eating out or trying a prepackaged meal.

18. Be diligent about turning off lights before you leave. If you spend one minute turning off lights before a two hour trip, that’s the equivalent of earning $50 an hour. That’s some impressive savings, particularly if you do it before longer trips. The key is to use less energy, particularly when you’re not using the device.

19. Swap books, music, and DVDs cheaply on the internet via services like PaperBackSwap. You can very easily swap the books and CDs and DVDs you’ve grown bored with via the internet with others. Just use sites like PaperBackSwap, clean out your media collection, and trade them with others online. The best part? You’ll get a flood of new books (or CDs or DVDs) to enjoy, mailed right to you – for free.

20. Maximize yard sales. I like to stop by yard sales if I see them, but I recognize that often the stuff there is junk. Thus, I’m careful about what I buy and I use clever tactics to find it – and lower the prices. That way, I wind up with a really big bargain – or else I can just walk away with the money in my pocket, having been entertained for a bit.

21. Install CFL (or, even better, LED) bulbs wherever it makes sense. These bulbs might cost more initially, but they both have a longer life than normal incandescent bulbs and they both eat far less electricity. CFLs tend to use about 25% of the electricity of an incandescent – LEDs use about 2%. CFLs are cheaper than LEDs right now and produce better light, but not quite as good as incandescent bulbs. My policy? Put LEDs in closets and out of the way places, use CFLs for hall and some room lighting, and use incandescent bulbs (until the other bulbs get better) where you read and do other eye-intensive activities. This will trim a significant amount from your electric bill.

22. Install a programmable thermostat. These devices regulate the temperature in your house automatically according to the schedule that you set. Thus, when you’re not home, it allows the heating or cooling to turn off for several hours, saving you on your energy bill. A programmable thermostat can easily cut your energy bill by 10 to 20%.

23. Buy appliances based on reliability, not what’s cheapest at the store. It’s worth the time to do a bit of research when you buy a new appliance. A reliable, energy efficient washer and dryer might cost you quite a bit now, but if it continually saves you energy and lasts for fifteen years, you’ll save significant money in the long run. When you need to buy an appliance, research it – start with back issues of Consumer Reports at the library. An hour’s worth of research can easily save you hundreds of dollars.

24. Clean your car’s air filter. A clean air filter can improve your gas mileage by up to 7%, saving you more than $100 for every 10,000 miles you drive in an average vehicle. Plus, cleaning your air filter is easy to do in just a few minutes – just follow the instructions in your automobile’s manual and you’re good to go.

25. Hide your credit cards. Take your credit cards and put them in a safe place in your home, not in your wallet where it’s easy to spend them. If you argue that you need it for “emergencies,” just be sure to keep a small amount of cash hidden in your wallet for these emergencies. Don’t keep plastic on you until you have the willpower to not use it even when you’re sorely tempted.

26. Plan your meals around your grocery store’s flyer. Instead of just planning your meals based on a cookbook or whatever you can dream up, plan all your meals around what’s on sale in your grocery store’s flyer. Look at the biggest sales, then plan meals based on those ingredients and what you have on hand, and you’ll find yourself with a much smaller food bill than you’re used to.

27. Do a price comparison – and find a cheaper grocery store. Most of us get in a routine of shopping at the same grocery store, even though quite often it’s not the one that offers the best deals on our most common purchases. Fortunately, there’s a simple way to find the cheapest store around. Just keep track of the twenty or so things you buy most often, then shop for these items at a variety of stores. Eventually, one store will come out on top for your purchases – just make that one your regular shopping destination and you’ll automatically save money.

28. Challenge yourself to try making your own things. Before I tried it myself, I thought homemade breadmaking was complicated and a waste of time and money. I came to find out that it was pretty easy and it was actually much cheaper, healthier, and tastier than buying a loaf from the store. Now, we rarely ever buy bread products at the store – and we save money by making that choice.

29. Don’t spend money just to de-stress. Quite often, I used to spend money just to wind down from a stressful day at work. Instead, I’ve found that I quite often feel much better by going home and taking some quiet time just to stretch and then meditate. I end up feeling much more together, happy, and ready to face an evening with the kids in the right mindset than I ever would by just blowing some cash after work. Instead of spending to de-stress, try some basic meditation techniques, stretching, or yoga and see how you feel.

30. Talk to your loved ones about what your dreams are. This seems like an odd way to save money, but think about it. If you spend time with the people you love the most and come to some consensus about your dreams, it becomes easy for you all to plan for it. If you’re all planning and working together towards this dream, it becomes easier to stay focused on it and reach it. Set a big, audacious goal together and encourage each other to be financially fit – soon, you’ll find you’re doing it naturally and your dreams are coming closer than ever.

31. Do a “maintenance run” on your appliances. Check them to make sure there isn’t any dust clogging them and that they’re fairly clean. Look behind the appliances, and use your vacuum to gently clear away dust. Check all of the vents, especially on refrigerators, dryers, and heating and cooling units. The less dust you have blocking the mechanics of these devices, the more efficiently they’ll run (saving you on your energy bill) and the longer they’ll last (saving you on replacement costs).

32. Cancel unused club memberships. Are you paying dues at a club that you never use? Like, for instance, a gym membership or a country club membership? Cancel these club memberships, even if you think you might use them again someday – you can always renew the membership at a later date if it turns out that you actually do miss it.

33. When shopping for standard items (clothes, sports equipment, older games, etc.), start by shopping used. Quite often, you can find the exact item you want with a bit of clever shopping at used equipment stores, used game stores, consignment shops, and so on. Just make these shops a part of your normal routine – go there first when looking for potential items and you will save money.

34. Keep your hands clean. This one’s simple – just wash your hands thoroughly each time you use the bathroom or handle raw foods. You’ll keep yourself from acquiring all kinds of viruses and bacteria, saving you on medical bills and medicine costs and lost productivity. That’s not to say you shouldn’t explore the world and get your hands dirty sometimes – that’s good for you, too – but basic sanitation does help keep the medical bills away.

35. Remove your credit card numbers from your online accounts. It’s easy to spend online when you have your card information stored in an account – just click and buy. The best way to break this habit is to simply delete your card from the account. That way, when you’re tempted to spend, you’ll be forced to spend the time to dig out your card – and really think about why you’re spending this money.

36. Give a gift of a service instead of an item. For new parents, give an evening of babysitting as a gift. If you know pet owners, offer to take care of their pets when they travel. Offer up some lawn care as a gift to a new homeowner. These are always spectacular gifts for anyone – I know that, as a parent of a toddler and an infant, I love receiving a babysitting gift, probably more than any “stuff” I might receive.

37. Do holiday shopping right after the holidays. Most people use this technique for Christmas, but it works for every holiday. Wait until about two days after a holiday, then go out shopping for items you need that are themed for that day. Get a Mother’s Day card for next year the day after Mother’s Day. Get Easter egg decorating kits the day after Easter. Get wrapping paper and cards and such the day after Christmas. The discounts are tremendous, and you can just put this stuff in the closet until next year, saving you a bundle.

38. Join up with a volunteer program. It’s a great way to meet new people, get some exercise, and involve yourself in a positive project that can lift your spirit. It also comes without a cost to you and can provide a lot of entertainment and a fulfilling day when you’re in the right mindset. I’ve come to spend more and more of my time volunteering, serving on various committees and groups in the community – and it’s the best thing I’ve ever done.

39. Reevaluate the stuff in the rooms in your house. Go into a room and go through every single item in it. Do you really need that item? Are you happy that it’s there, or would you be just fine if it were not? If you can find stuff to get rid of, get rid of it – it just creates clutter and it might have some value to others. You also improve the perceived value of your house – and you’re likely to get a lot of cleaning done in the process. It’s a frugal win-win-win.

40. Try generic brands of items you buy regularly. Instead of just picking up the ordinary brand of an item you buy, try out the store brand or generic version of the item. Likely, you’ll save a few cents now, but you’ll also likely discover that the store brand is just as good as the name brand – the only difference between the two, often, is the marketing. Once you’re on board the generic train, you’ll find your regular grocery bill getting smaller and smaller.

41. Prepare some meals at home. Get an accessible and easy-to-use cookbook (my favorite “beginner” cookbook is Mark Bittman’s excellent How to Cook Everything) and try making some of the dishes inside. You’ll find that cooking at home is much easier than you think – and way cheaper and healthier than take-out or dining out. Even better, you can easily prepare meals in advance – even handy fast food type meals.

42. Switch to term life insurance. Repeat after me: insurance is not an investment. Switch to term insurance instead and use that difference in cost to get yourself out of debt and start building some wealth. Universal and whole policies are much more expensive and offer a sub par investment opportunity – you’re much better off getting yourself free of a debt burden than spending extra on such things.

43. Go for reliability and fuel efficiency when buying a car. A reliable and fuel efficient car will save you thousands over the long haul. Let’s say you drive a vehicle for 80,000 miles. If you choose a 25 miles per gallon car over a 15 miles per gallon car, you save 2,133 gallons of gas. At $3 a gallon, that’s $6,400 in savings right there. Reliability can pay the same dividends. Do the research – it will pay off for you.

44. Don’t go to stores or shopping centers for entertainment. Doing so is just an encouragement to spend money you don’t really have on stuff you don’t really need. Instead, find other places to entertain yourself – the park, the basketball court, a museum, a friend’s house, or even in your own home. Don’t substitute shopping for entertainment and you’ll be way better off.

45. Master the ten second rule. Whenever you pick up an item in order to add it to your cart or to take it to the checkout, stop for ten seconds and ask yourself why you’re buying it and whether you actually need it or not. If you can’t find a good answer, put the item back. This keeps me from making impulse buys on a regular basis.

46. Rent out unused space in your home. Do you have an extra bedroom that’s not being used? Rent it out. In our home, we could, if times were tough, rent out our entire basement – it has a “living room,” a bedroom, and a bathroom and has a stairwell right by the kitchen. If we found the right person, this would bring in a lot of extra money.

47. Create a visual reminder of your debt. Basically, just make a giant progress bar that starts with the amount of debt you have and ends with zero. Each time you pay down a little bit, fill in a little more of that progress bar. Keep this reminder in a place where you’ll see it often, and keep filling it in regularly. It keeps your eyes on the prize and leads you straight to debt freedom.

48. Get rid of unread magazine subscriptions. Do you have a pile of unread magazines sitting around your house? Likely, it’s the result of a subscription that you’re not reading. Not only should you not renew that magazine, you should give their subscription department a call and try to cancel for a refund – sometimes, they’ll give you the prorated amount back. I’ve had to cull my subscriptions in the past, but I’ve never regretted it.

49. Eat breakfast. Eating a healthy breakfast fills you up with energy for the day and also decreases your desire to eat a big lunch in the middle of the day. Not only that, breakfast can be very healthy, quick, and inexpensive. A bowl of oatmeal in the morning is often the one thing that keeps me from running out to eat an expensive lunch later in the day – and it keeps me peppy and full of energy for the entire morning instead of in a coffee-laced daze.

50. Swap babysitting with neighbors. We live in a neighborhood with an army of young children out and about. Because of that, there are a lot of parents out there who are quite willing to swap babysitting nights with us, saving you the money of hiring one for an evening out. A few families even take this to incredible extremes. Try to find another set of parents or two that you trust, and swap nights of babysitting with them. That way, you’ll get occasional evenings free without the cost of a babysitter, saving you some scratch.

51. Don’t fear leftovers – instead, jazz them up. Many people dread eating leftovers – they’re just inferior rehashes of regular meals, not exactly enjoyable to the discerning palate. However, there’s nothing cheaper than eating leftovers and with a few great techniques for making leftovers tasty, you can often end up with something surprising and quite delicious on the other end. My favorite technique? Chaining – using the leftovers as a basis for an all-new dish.

52. Go through your clothes – all of them. If you have a regular urge to buy clothes, go through everything that you have and see what you might find. Take the clothes at the back of the closet and bring them to the front and suddenly your wardrobe will feel completely different. Take the clothes buried in your dresser and pull them to the top. You’ll feel like a brand new person who doesn’t need to spend money on clothes right now.

53. Brown bag your lunch. Instead of going out to eat at work, take your own lunch. Lots of people think that this means “nasty lunch,” but it doesn’t. With some thoughtful preparation and just a few minutes of time, you can create something quite enjoyable for your brown bag lunch – and save a fistful of cash each day, too.

54. Learn how to dress minimally. Buy clothes that mix and match well and you’ll not need nearly as many clothes. If you have five pants, seven shirts, and seven ties that all go together, you have almost an endless wardrobe right there just by mixing and matching. This is exactly what I do in order to minimize clothes buying and still look professional – I just mix and remix what I wear by using utilitarian clothes options to begin with.

55. Ask for help and encouragement from your inner circle. Sit down and talk to the people you love and care about the most and ask them for help. Tell them that you’re trying to trim your spending and you’d love it if they offered any suggestions and support they might have – and pay attention to what they tell you. They might have some personal insights for your situation that will really help.

56. If something’s broken, give a fair shot at repairing it yourself before replacing it or calling a repairman. Get a handyman’s book or advice from the internet and give it a shot yourself. I’ve fixed clocks, air conditioners, and VCRs by doing this before, saving significant cash by saving on a replacement or on a repair person.

57. Keep an idea notebook in your pocket. I’ve wasted countless amounts of time and money simply because I’ve forgotten things in my head. Instead of relying on my memory, I keep a small notebook with me to jot down ideas and things I need to remember, then I check it regularly throughout the day. This keeps me from forgetting to pick up milk and having to backtrack ten miles, for starters.

58. Invest in a deep freezer. A deep freezer, after the initial investment, is a great bargain. You can use it to store all sorts of bulk foods, which enables you to pay less per pound of it at the market. Even better, you can store lots of meals prepared in advance, enabling you to just go home and pop something homemade (and cheap) in the oven.

59. Look for a cheaper place to live. The cost of living in Iowa is surprisingly low, enough so that I’m quite happy to give up the cultural opportunities of other places to enjoy Iowa all year around. When I want to enjoy the cultural opportunities of another place, I’ll travel there – after all, I can afford it. Take a serious look about moving to a less expensive area – if you can find work there, then a move can definitely put you in better financial shape.

60. Check out what your town’s parks and recreation board has to offer. My town has several wonderful parks, free basketball and tennis courts, free disc golf, trails, and lots of other stuff just there waiting to be used. You can go have fun for hours out in the wonderful outdoors, playing sports, hiking on trails, or trying other activities – and it’s all there for free. All you have to do is discover it.

61. Air up your tires. For every two PSI that all of your tires are below the recommended level, you lose 1% on your gas mileage. Most car tires are five to ten PSI below the normal level, so that means by just airing up your tires, you can improve your gas mileage by up to 5%. It’s easy, too. Just read your car’s manual to see what the recommended tire pressure is, then head to the gas station. Ask the attendant inside if they have a tire air gauge you can borrow (most of them do, both in urban and rural settings), then stop over by the air pump. Check your tires, then use the pump to fill them up to where they should be. It’s basically free gas!

62. Start a garden. Gardening is an inexpensive hobby if you have a yard. Just rent a tiller, till up a patch, plant some plants, keep it weeded, and you’ll have a very inexpensive hobby that produces a huge amount of vegetables for you to eat at the end of the season. I like planting a bunch of tomato plants, keeping them cared for, then enjoying a huge flood of tomatoes at the end of the summer. We like to eat them fresh, can them, and make tomato juice, sauce, paste, ketchup, pasta sauce, and pizza sauce. Delicious (and very inexpensive)!

63. Dig into your community calendar. There are often tons of free events going on in your town that you don’t even know about. Stop by the local library or by city hall and ask how you can get ahold of a listing of upcoming community events, and make an effort to hit the interesting ones. You can often get free meals, free entertainment, and free stuff just by paying attention – even better, you’ll get in touch with what’s going on around you.

64. Take public transportation. If the city’s transit system is available near you, take it to work (or to play) instead of driving your car. It’s far cheaper and you don’t have to worry about parking your vehicle. When I lived in a larger city, I bought an annual transit pass that actually paid for itself after less than two months of use compared to using an automobile – and after that, for ten months, I basically could ride to work (and to some events) for free. That’s money in the bank.

65. Cut your own hair. I can cut mine myself with a pair of clippers, for example. I just cut it really short every once in a while and don’t worry about it too much. Just put a garbage bag over the bathroom sink, bust out the clippers and scissors, and get it done. Two or three cuts will pay for the clippers, and then you’re basically getting free haircuts. With a bit of practice, you can make it look good, too.

66. Carpool. Is there anyone that lives near you who works at the same place (or near the same place) that you do? Why not ride together, alternating drivers each day? You can halve the wear and tear and gas costs for your car – and for your acquaintance as well.

67. Design your “debt snowball.” Everyone needs a plan to help them get out of debt, so sit down and plot out what debts you’re going to pay off and in what order. Simply having a plan goes a long way towards bringing that plan into action, and paying off debts early is one of the surest ways to put money in your pocket over the long run.

crock68. Get a crock pot. A crock pot is perhaps the best deal on earth for reducing cooking costs in a busy family. You can just dump in your ingredients before work, put it on simmer, and dinner is done when you get home. There are countless recipes out there for all variety of foods, and every time you cook this way, you’re saving money as compared to eating out.

69. Do some basic home and auto maintenance on a regular schedule. Instead of just waiting until something breaks to deal with it, develop a monthly maintenance schedule where you go around your home (and your car) and perform a bit of maintenance where it’s needed. This little activity, taking you just an hour or two a month, will keep things from breaking down and help you see problems before they become disasters.

70. Pack food before you go on a road trip. Have everyone pack a sack lunch for the trip. That way, instead of stopping in the middle of the trip, driving around looking for a place to eat, spending a bunch of time there, and then paying a hefty bill, you can just eat on the road or, better yet, stop at a nice park and stretch for a bit. Plus, you’ll save a lot of money and a fair amount of time this way.

71. Go through your cell phone bill, look for services you don’t use, and ditch them. Sit down and go through each item on your bill and see if there’s anything there that you don’t use, like a surfeit of text messages or web access or something to that effect. Then call your cell phone company and ask to have those services eliminated. Boom, you’re saving money.

72. Consolidate your student loans. Interest rates are quite low right now, so it might be worthwhile to consolidate your student loans into one low-rate package. Look into the various student loan consolidation packages – even a 1% reduction on a $10,000 loan saves you $100 a year – and your loan is probably bigger than that (and the rate cut you could get is probably bigger).

73. When buying a car, go for late model used. These are typically cars coming straight off of leases, meaning they were cared for by reliable owners. My truck was purchased with this criteria and has lasted me several years already with only one significant issue – and I saved a ton of money on the purchase price over buying new. Only now is it beginning to show significant signs of aging – and with the money I saved on that purchase, I was able to get out of debt that much quicker.

74. Hit the library – hard. Don’t look at a library as just a place to get old books. Look at it as a free place to do all sorts of things. I’ve used it to learn a foreign language, meet people, use the Internet anonymously, check out movies and CDs, grab local free newspapers, and keep up on community events. Best of all, it doesn’t cost a dime.

razor75. Use a simple razor to shave. I’ve been a big advocate of the basic safety razor for a long time, but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. For “normal” shaves, I just shave in the shower and dry off the blade afterwards, using just soap for lather – incredibly cheap, since I only swap blades once every few weeks. The real moral of the story? Use a simple razor – not an expensive electric one that stops working in three years – and shave your face when it’s wet. You can get a very good shave with some practice and save a lot of money over the long haul.

76. Find daily inspiration for making intelligent moves. I’m usually inspired by my children. Perhaps you’re inspired to make changes by your spouse – or even by someone in the community you respect. Maybe it’s just a personal goal, like an early retirement. Find something that makes you want to make positive changes, then use that person or thing as a constant reminder. Keep a picture of it in your wallet, in your vehicle, and on your bathroom mirror. Keep it in your mind as much as you possibly can.

77. Find out about all of the benefits of your job. Most people aren’t even aware of all of the benefits available to them. Spend some time with an HR person finding out about all the benefits of your job – you might be surprised at what you might find. I found free tickets to sporting events, free personal improvement opportunities, and an optional employee match on some retirement funds that maximized the money I was socking away. This not only cut down on my own spending on things like sporting and community events and educational classes, but also improved my retirement plan.

78. Make your own items instead of buying them. I like to make my own laundry detergent and my own Goo-Gone, for starters. I also like making Glade, Windex, and Soft Scrub. In both cases, it’s way cheaper than buying the commercial version. Hunt around for recipes – it’s amazing how many things you can make at home in just a few minutes that saves a ton of money compared to the commercial version.

79. Encourage your friends to do less expensive activities. This is often a tricky thing to do, but there are a number of techniques you can try. My favorite one is to be the first one to suggest something – that often gives you the power to steer the group towards things that are cheaper. If you can convince your friends to go to the park and shoot hoops instead of going golfing, those green fees are going to stay in your pocket.

80. Don’t speed. Not only is it inefficient in terms of gasoline usage, it also can get you pulled over and cost you a bundle, as I discovered a while back. It’s highly cost-efficient to just drive the speed limit, keep that gas in the tank, and keep the cops off your tail.

81. Read more. Reading is one of the cheapest – and most beneficial – hobbies around. Most towns have a library available to the public – just go there and check out some books that interest you. Then, spend some of your free time in a cozy place in your house, just reading away. You’ll learn something new, improve your reading ability, enjoy yourself, and not have to spend a dime. Here are some more techniques for getting into the reading flow.

82. Buy a smaller house. I currently live in a 2,000 square foot house with my wife and two kids. Frankly, it’s just the right size for us – if anything, it’s a little big. We often find ourselves in the same room in the house, just surrounded by empty space. You don’t need a giant place to live. Instead, buy something more modest and you’ll find yourself with plenty of room – and still plenty of cash in your pocket.

83. Drive a different route to work. This is an especially powerful tip if you find yourself “automatically” stopping for something on the way into work or the way home. Get rid of that constant drain by selecting a different route that doesn’t go by the temptation, even if the new route is a bit longer. You’ll still be time ahead (because you’re not stopping) and you’ll definitely be money ahead.

84. Always ask for fees to be waived. Any time you sign up for a service of any kind and there are sign-up fees, ask for them to be waived. Sometimes (but not always), they will be – and you save money just by being forthright about not wanting to pay excessive fees. I did this with my last cell phone sign-up and got part of my fees waived, cutting down significantly on the bill.

85. Don’t overspend on hygiene products. For most people, inexpensive hygiene products do the trick – for example, I just buy whichever toothpaste is the cheapest, and the same goes with deodorant and the like. The key is to use this stuff regularly and consistently – bathe daily, keep yourself clean, and you’ll be just fine. No need to buy a $40 facial scrub if you actually scrub your face properly.

86. Eat less meat. For the nutritional value, meat is very expensive, especially as compared to vegetables and fruits. Simply change around your regular meal proportions to include more fruits and vegetables and less meats – eat a smaller steak and a bigger helping of green beans, for example. Not only is this a healthier way to eat (saving on health costs), it’s also less expensive.

87. Use a brutally effective coupon strategy. Here’s the trick: wait a month before using the coupons. Save your coupon flyer out of your Sunday paper for a month, then bust it out and start cutting anything that might be of interest. For a bonus kicker, use the coupons in comparison with your grocery store flyer that week to find out ways you can use a coupon to reduce the cost of an item already on sale – you can wind up paying pennies for some things and, on occasion, actually get food for free (I’ve came home with a ton of free yogurt containers before, for example).

88. Air seal your home. Most homes have some air leaks that make the job of keeping it cool in summer and warm in winter that much harder – and that much more costly for you. Spend an afternoon air sealing your home – the DoE has a great guide on basic airsealing.

89. Make your own beer or wine. If you enjoy an occasional drink, this is a great way to enjoy some of the beverages that you love at a very cheap price. You can easily make five gallons of beer or wine at once and it doesn’t take that long, either, once you have the basic ingredients. Even better, it’s a great activity to do with friends – you buy the equipment, they bring the juice and you both get a few bottles of delicious homemade wine out of the deal. A nice entertainment, plus some free beverages – that’s a great frugal deal.

90. Make sure all your electrical devices are on a surge protector. This is especially true of your entertainment center and your computer equipment. A power surge can damage these electronics very easily, so spend the money for a basic surge protector and keep your equipment plugged into such a device.

91. Get on an automatic debt repayment plan for any student loans you have. Many student loans offer a rate reduction if you sign up for their automatic debt repayment plan. This way, not only do you save a few bucks a month, you don’t have to go to the effort of actually paying the bill. Our automatic plan saved us about $60 a year.

92. Cut down on your vacation spending. Instead of going on a big, extravagant trip, pack up the car and see some of America some years for vacation. One of the best vacations I’ve ever taken was when my son was an infant – we just packed up the car and drove around Minnesota, eventually camping for a few days along the north shore of Lake Superior. For a week long relaxing vacation, it was incredibly cheap and quite memorable, too.

93. Cancel the cable or satellite channels you don’t watch. Many people with cable services often are paying for a premium package but rarely watch those extra channels. For the longest time, my wife and I were subscribed to HBO, Starz, and Cinemax, yet we would only tune in once a month at best. We argued that it was worth it because we could watch a movie or a great drama whenever we wanted, but it would have been far cheaper just to rent a movie. Get rid of the excess channels and put that cash back in your pocket.

94. Exercise more. Go for a walk or a jog each evening, and practice stretching and some light muscle exercise at home. These exercises can be done at home for very little, meaning you’ve got an activity without a lot of cost, and the health benefits are enormous. Just set aside some time each day to get some exercise, and your body and wallet will thank you.

95. Utilize online bill pay with your bank. This serves two purposes. First, it keeps you in much closer contact with your money, as you can keep a very close eye on your balance and be in much less danger of overdrafting. Second, it saves you money on stamps and paper checks by allowing you to just fill in an online form, click submit, and have your bill paid. Try it out – and take advantage of it if you’re not already.

96. Buy staples in bulk. We buy items we use a lot of in bulk, particularly items that don’t perish – trash bags, laundry detergent, diapers, and so on are purchased in the largest amounts possible. This cuts down on their cost per usage by quite a bit and, over the long haul, begins to add up to some serious money. Even better, we don’t have to shop for these items very often, saving time and a fraction of the cost of a trip to the grocery store.

97. Connect your entertainment center and/or computer setup to a true smart power strip. A device like the SmartStrip LCG4 basically cuts power to all devices on the strip depending on the status of the first item on the strip. So, if you have your workstation hooked up to this, every time you power down your workstation, your monitor powers down, your printer powers down, your scanner powers down, and so on. You can do the same thing with your entertainment console – when you turn off the television, the cable/satellite box also goes off, as does the video game console, the VCR, the DVD player, and so on. This can save you a lot of electricity and significantly trim your power bill.

98. Don’t beat yourself up when you make a mistake. Even if you make ten good choices, it’s easy to beat yourself up and feel like a failure over one bad choice. If you make a big mistake and realize it, think about why you realized it now instead of then, and try to apply that later on. The memory of that mistake can end up being very valuable, indeed.

99. Always keep looking ahead. Don’t let the mistakes of your past drag you down into more mistakes. Look ahead to the future. The choices you make now won’t affect the past – but they definitely will affect the future. Think back, and remember how the bad choices you made earlier are costing you now, and constantly remember to not make those mistakes now so that they don’t cost your future self.

100. Never give up. Whenever the struggle against debt feels like it’s too much, go read a personal finance blog and remember that there are a lot of people out there fighting the same fight. Read around through the archives and learn some new things – and perhaps get inspired to keep going, no matter what.

via thesimpledollar.com

Could Silver Be the Apple of the Resources Sector?

Sometimes making a great deal of money in the market can all come down to one single good idea.

If that idea is solid – and you are patient enough to see it through – it can be enough to make a fortune.

Just ask Warren Buffett.

He invested in Gillette because, in his own words, ‘It’s pleasant going to bed at night, knowing there are 2.5 billion males in the world who will have to shave in the morning’.

It’s surprising how simple the foundation of an idea can be.

 
In Buffett’s case, half the world’s population is male, and many are adults that have to shave each day. So, they will need shaving foam and razor blades every day for many years to come.

When Proctor and Gamble bought Gillette a few years later, Buffett made $645 million on the deal. Not bad for a day’s work.

 

Using the Same Logic

 

 
My brother, while not exactly Warren Buffett, has done well following the same simple logic.

 

He was writing computer code before he could walk, and has worked in IT his whole career.

And he was also using Apple Macintosh computers – back when an Apple was still a type of fruit.

He liked the Apple Mac computers. They were a quirky product in a Microsoft dominated market – yet these ‘Macs’ were stable, a pleasure to use, and looked cool. He reckoned it was just time before they cleaned up the whole market.

So he bet big on Apple.

The result?

He’s made a more – than 4000% gain.

Having the clarity and conviction, and then patience to hang on for seven years in the hope you’re right about a company, is no easy feat.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may be all over the news right now, but Apple’s investors have been making incredible returns for years. This is the 10-year chart, which follows it from the wreckage of the tech-crash, to present day.

 

Apple share price – I’m not jealous, honest!

 

Apple share price - I'm not jealous, honest!

 

Source: Stockcharts

 

 
But because my bro is living in the UK, he also has the sweetener that the British pound is down 25% against the US dollar since he bought his shares.

 

…This means his 4000% gain is actually worth 5000%.

That’s more than a 50-fold increase in his capital.

Jealous … me?

It hasn’t been an easy journey, and seeing this spectacular gain has involved some major thrills and spills on the way. I remember when he was visiting me in Melbourne in January 2008, he saw Apple’s share price fall 80% in a few days. He shrugged it off calmly and went about his day. It then rallied and halved again later that same year. He was remarkably unphased.

Having a great idea is the easy bit. It’s sticking with it that’s the tough part.

Apple is suddenly getting a lot of media attention for a few reasons. For one thing, at US$560 billion it is now America’s biggest stock by market capitalisation.

It is also making a BILLION dollars in cash each week.

The cash pile is now around $100 billion dollars. Let me put that it context. By Christmas, Apple’s cash pile will be bigger than New Zealand’s economy.

So, with so much money rolling in, the company has voted to start paying a 1.8% dividend each year. But even then the company complains that, due to tax issues, it can’t pay out its cash quicker than it is making it. Sounds like a good problem to have!

But with Apple’s share price up 66% this year, it looks to me like the share price has got ahead of itself.

One big problem is that Apple is now the clear favourite among hedge funds, and where the hedge funds invest, volatility follows. At last count,over 200 hedge funds have taken a stake in the cashed-up maker of the iPhone.

And they are there for ‘a good time, not a long time’. So the hedgies will sell all their stock in a heartbeat if the going gets rough, then look around for the next punt.

So far, hedgies only have 4% of the stock but this is increasing. They are like sheep, so we can expect more to follow. When it’s time for them to take profit, we could see the share price drop. This often happens in the lead up to Christmas. This is when hedge funds pull out all the stops to make their calendar-year profits – and their annual bonus – as big as possible. Watch out for a drop later this year.

 

The Resource Sector’s Version of Apple?

 

There are some commodities, like silver, palladium and tin that, like Apple, have had spectacular runs, testing the nerves of investors along the way. Silver is up more than 600% in the last 10 years, and along the way has had periods where it has lost more than 60% in a few months, before recovering.

 

Silver – the commodity sector’s version of Apple

 

Silver - the commodity sector's version of Apple

 

Source: Stockcharts

 

 

After a terrible 2010, silver is now up over 20% this year. You can see on the chart that it is normally after a slow 12 months that silver often has its next big move up, and it looks to me like this is starting to happen.

The reasons for silver prices to keep rising are still in place.

Part of my talk at our conference in Sydney last week was how to amplify your profits from these kind of commodity moves. I recommend holding physical silver, but it has only returned 15.7%, in Aussie-dollar terms, on average over the last 10 years.

That’s better than a slap in the face, but if you want to increase your gains, one option is to invest in silver stocks. In the time that Aussie-dollar silver has eked out a hard-earned 1% gain, an ASX-listed silver explorer I recommended to Diggers and Drillers readers last Novemberhas gained 111.1%. An incredible 15.1% of that was this morning alone.

OK, it’s not quite the 4000% that Apple has made in seven years. But 111.1% is not bad for just three months.

 

You Don’t Want to Miss This Boat

 

Just as it takes differing views to make a market, the views of the speakers at our conference differed. But one common message of the conference was that there is trouble brewing in China and we can’t rely on it to pick up the pieces ‘After America’.

I tend to be more bullish on China than my colleagues. But if I’m wrong and China IS going to crash in the coming years … all the more reason to try and profit from these small-cap miners right now and cushion the blow!

We may have missed the boat with Apple. But I still see plenty more opportunities in the oil, precious metals and agricultural small-cap space this year.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

via Money Morning Australia

After America: China and Gold Demand

We are back at work today after holding our ‘After America’ conference up in Sydney last week.

It was a big success. The venue was full – and right up to stumps on the last day too. We got great feedback from those that made it. But, it takes two to tango – and the quality of the questions from the audience was just as excellent.

I took over an hour of questions in all, and they kept me on my toes!

I started on Chinese gold demand and why it spells both good news and bad news for gold investors.


I was arguing why the surge in Chinese gold purchasing could only be the People’s Bank of China buying. And that this is the foundation of launching their currency, the Renminbi, as a gold-backed currency this decade. This will take thousands of tonnes more gold – good news for gold investors.

Not All Good News for Gold

But – the bad news comes if you are invested in gold stocks operating in countries neighbouring China, such as Vietnam and the Philippines. As China’s military budget soars ahead of its neighbours, and starts catching up with America’s, the risk level of gold stocks in these countries will go from ‘risky’, to ‘riskier’.

Aussie-listed mining companies are active in over 180 countries worldwide. And when I tip stocks, the location of the country is everything. It takes time to get your return from mining projects, so you want to feel safe about where the project is over the long term. It’s no good if the country is on the verge of civil war.

Or as one old hand told me – ‘you wouldn’t plant your veggie patch on a footy pitch, would ya?’

So I use all the information I can get to measure a country’s risk level. There are many professional risk assessors, but the acid-test is ‘The Nikki Test’. If my wife won’t let me fly to a particular country then it’s probably a good sign to leave stocks operating in those countries on the watch list!

So, as China is buying thousands of tonnes of gold, but its neighbours could be off limits, I talked about some exciting, and probably safer, gold camps in the world as alternatives.

The good news for readers who couldn’t get to the conference is we recorded the whole thing. This will be available on DVD soon. Click here to order your copy. With two days of speeches it is brimming with food for thought for investors who want to take control of their financial destiny.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

10 Ways To End Your Financial Worries Forever

10 Things You Can Do Right Now To Finally End Your Financial Worries

 

Some time ago, I read an article written by J.D. Roth of Get Rich Slowly, a personal finance blog named the ‘Most Inspiring’ money blog in 2008 by Money Magazine.

In the article, J.D. offered some great advice to one of his readers who emailed him to ask for financial advice because she was in serious need of help.

The reader, Kay, said in her email that she’s never developed good financial habits and at 39 years of age, she has no savings (no emergency and retirement funds) and she’s about $28,000 in debt.

Next May, she will lose half of her child support when her son graduates from high school, and the rest the following May when her daughter graduates.

She has a list full of high-priority financial needs, but trying to do everything at once is getting her exactly nowhere. The only thing she’s done so far is cutting up her credit cards.

What would you do if you were in her shoes?

In the comment section, I left my thought about a few things that Kay could consider on top of J.D.’s advice. But first, let’s hear what advice J.D. offered Kay.

Note: This is a curtailed version. If you want to read J.D.’s actual advice, read the full article @ The First Three Steps to Financial Freedom.

J.D. said there’s no one right answer to Kay’s problem and I absolutely agree with that.

In J.D.’s words:

Some choices are better than others, it’s true, but the best way to take control of your finances is to do something. Action beats inaction. Taking any step in the right direction will help Kay move closer to financial stability.

Following that, J.D. advised that there are three things Kay should focus on right now.

Reduce Expenses

As Kay did not mention her expenses in her email, J.D. made the assumption that she’s probably like most people – spending more than she needs in a variety of ways. J.D. advised to cut expenses one at a time to help create a better cash flow, allowing some breathing room.

Focus on one item. Once you’ve trimmed that, look for another. This gets easier with time.

Build Savings

Kay should save the extra money she gets from cutting her expenses for emergencies. It doesn’t really matter how much is the amount. The most important thing is to get into the habit of saving.

Tackle Debt

After reducing expenses and building an emergency fund of $500 or $1000, the third step is to make a spending plan for tackling debt. And if you’re struggling with debt, J.D. highly recommends the debt snowball strategy.

“The debt-snowball method is a debt reduction strategy, whereby one who owes on more than one account pays off the accounts with the smaller balances first, proceeding to the larger ones later.” – Wikipedia

While J.D.’s advice is great, I thought there are a few more things that Kay could do. So I suggested the following in the comment section:

——————————————————————————————————-

1. Adopt the Right Mindset

This may not seem to have any direct effect on reducing debt or increasing savings. But truth be told, wealthy people are wealthy because they think very differently, which leads them to adopt very different habits, and take very different actions, thus producing vastly different results.

We have to set our foundation – our mindset – right before we can start tackling anything else in life.

2. Manage Your Money With Multiple Accounts

Personally, I have seven banking accounts. Each account is meant for a different purpose. This strategy helps me to ensure that:

  • I’m not spending more than I should
  • I’m able to pay my credit card bills on time
  • I’m putting enough money aside for rainy days, and
  • I have surplus to invest

3. Use Credit Cards to Your Advantage

Too many people think that credit cards are ‘evil’, but the truth is nothing further away from that.

When credit cards are used properly, they can be very powerful wealth building tool! Because each purchase made on your credit cards will earn you bonus points which you can use to redeem for free products and services, thus saving you more money.

I always use the bonus points to redeem for gas vouchers. This has helped me save a lot on my gas bill.

Just make sure you don’t abuse the use of credit cards and always remember to pay the bill in full every month. Set up a separate account to help you achieve this. I share how I do this in the article linked to above.

4. Track Your Dollar

Start tracking your money so that you know where your money has gone. Tracking your money helps you to gain more control of your money instead of letting your money controls you.

Besides your monthly financial statements, you also have to keep track on a daily basis on each and every one of your expenditures.

Create a log or list and write down in your log/list every one of your expenditures including mortgage, groceries, bills, transport, clothing, etc. And write them down as soon as you get the chance so you don’t fall behind and forget about it.

5. Increase Your Income

Reducing expenses is only part of the equation. The other half to make it complete is to increase your income. Besides finding ways to cut your spending, you also need to find ways to make more money.

But I don’t mean asking your boss for a raise to increase your income, although you could try that. What I’d suggest is to start a home-based business such as an online business (e.g. Blogging) while holding on to your day job. It’s low cost, therefore, low risk.

Who knows? You might be the next J.D. Roth!

6. Grow Your Money

If you’re the kind who seek ’security’ in a job and are not willing to move out of your comfort zone to massively increase your income, then the best, and probably the only choice you have to build a million dollar net worth is to invest your money.

But really, just about anyone, whether you aspire to be a millionaire or not, should invest your money because it is the only way you can put your money to work for you to secure your own financial freedom.

——————————————————————————————————-

Now looking back at my own comment, I realize I had missed out one very important piece of the financial freedom puzzle…

7. Invest in Yourself

Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said, “The most important investment you can make is in yourself.”

Well I guess you can’t argue with one of the smartest and most successful men of our time.

Our mind is indeed the greatest asset we can invest in. No other forms of assets even come close. The potential return we can yield from investing in our mind is virtually unlimited.

Millionaires are rich not because they’re more hardworking, smarter or luckier. They’re rich because they know how to play the game of money and they invest intensively and extensively in their mind, knowledge and skills, especially financial knowledge and skills.

It is now up to you to decide what is best for you, your family, and your future.

I’ve made the decision to invest in myself.

via themillionaireway.net

 

Why Investing in Fringe Markets May Beat Silicon Valley

In January, Speedinvest, our first time seed fund, turned half a year old. Even in startup life, that’s quite young, yet it feels like ages. In this first of a series of observations, I want to share my specific experiences and hopefully learn from your feedback.

‘Central Europe? Are you joking?’

When I speak with friends in Silicon Valley, they don’t explicitly put it that way, but I get the feeling that’s how they still judge startups from Europe, especially from regions outside the so-called hotspots like London and Berlin.

Are we really desperately behind in following the hype cycles and trends, is all the exceptional Central European talent already living in studio apartments in San Francicso or NYC? Well, quite a few talented teams from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have moved into larger markets. But this isn’t the rule.

shutterstock 43426936 520x345 Hail the hidden champions: Why fringe markets may beat Silicon Valley (at least for investors)

You can divide successful entrepreneurship into two models:

  1. The Billion Dollar Entrepreneur
  2. The Hidden Champions

Silicon Valley is ‘the Hollywood of Tech’. Everone dreams of making it BIG. It’s all about Mark and Steve and the latest nine digit valuation. Everything has to happen fast; “go big or go home” is the rule.

Silicon Valley worships the Billion Dollar Entrepreneur. Obviously, almost all founders fail at that vision but, after all, their personal stakes are quite limited. You start your business and either raise funding or not. If not, you do something else. If you have raised funding, you try hard to be successful. If you don’t succeed, you do something else. Putting it politely, “Failure is OK”. But you could also say there is little value to “hanging on”. Bankruptcy holds no stigma, and people cycle through startups at a very high rate in Silicon Valley.

Europe is a little different. Here in Austria, the best entrepreneurs show a remarkable amount of persistence that is critical for success. Experience in central Europe has taught them that there is no fast lane to tech superstardom. The scale of the market rarely affords it, and so they gain a particular set of skills. They focus on what they can achieve, carefully manage cash flow and thrive on achieving their own vision, even if it is a magnitude smaller than that of their colleagues across the pond.

This difference is driven by economics, less than by culture. It’s hard to succeed with a horizontally service designed for hundreds of millions if only 5 million speak your language.

The result: There’s no European Facebook (yet), but plenty and plenty of “small to medium” success stories, driven by entrepreneurs with a very realistic grasp of their opportunities and limitations.

So what does this mean for a seed investor?

shutterstock 6052072 520x347 Hail the hidden champions: Why fringe markets may beat Silicon Valley (at least for investors)

Investors tend to emulate the entrepreneurial culture they see. Large U.S. VCs swing for the fences. They actively seek the next Twitter or Facebook, and, much like the region’s entrepreneurs, the best (or the luckiest) succeed on a grand scale.

Smart fringe market investors will not try to copy the methodology of their U.S. counterparts but will develop strategies that make sense for their required returns. For us, this actually means a focus on companies that are often clearly outside the hype cycle. But, the absence of large funds with an international scope, and the lack of private capital in CEE compared to the U.S. market, means that SpeedInvest enjoys opportunities with a large sector of businesses with outstanding fundamentals.

These are companies like Sipwise, Gaminside or Grin.com, our most recent investment; not too fancy, and surely no Pinterest, but great growth, great teams and great financials. I would argue that these three are far better investments than the vast majority of the 500 startups of Mr. McClure’s.

There is nothing wrong with having a portfolio of “Hidden Champions”. Their potential exits might be at eight figure valuations that my friends in the Valley wouldn’t bother to get out of bed for, but didn’t 50% of all U.S. VC’s recently go out of business because they weren’t delivering returns?

With our model, the math is quite simple.

Screen shot 2012 03 02 at 4.00.07 PM 520x311 Hail the hidden champions: Why fringe markets may beat Silicon Valley (at least for investors)

We invest 10M, and plan to return at least 2-3 times that. To do this, we need a handful of companies in which we hold 20%-30% and that have a very high probability of exit at low eight figure valuations over a period of 4-7 years.

And we retain a very good chance of breaking even with our remaining portfolio companies. Why? Because they aren’t ‘swing for the fences’ Web or mobile app companies that never gained traction and have no real assets; they are solid businesses that may not have succeeded in cracking the global market, but still have many regional opportunities. The key here is speed and timing. The mistake I have seen over and over again is that investment managers (and founders) hold out too long, hoping for the home run, only to see the few exit opportunities pass by. And then it’s too late. Be humble, be quick. Keep and eye on your goals for the whole portfolio, be consistent, sell and move on.

For our model to succeed we need one out of four companies to make a “moderate exit” at 15M . And this is where we actually have a competitive advantage. We have a full crop of ‘Hidden Champions’ and many more in the pipeline in CEE, simply because our environment produces them. In Silicon Valley, they are a rare breed, and many of them are either already completely overfunded and therefore need huge exits, or they are lifestyle companies with no intent to sell.

In our little fringe markets, the Hidden Champion is the norm for a successful entrepreneur. These are the deals we constantly see, and that form the backbone of a very solid technology sector that promises fast, consistent returns.

Ulrike Haberkorn2happyNicholas MooreBortN66 via shutterstock,

The Good The Bad And The Ugly

1. Auction clearance rates under 50%

So what? you might think.  But values don’t increase unless auction clearance rates are consistently over 50%.   At present the numbers from RPData don’t look pretty – 35% in Adelaide and Perth; 47% in Sydney and just over 50%  in Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane’s result is 31%, but few properties in Queensland are resold via auction.  We are hopeful that the magic 50% mark will return in the second half of calendar 2012.

Why?  Because whilst the total new listings are ramping up, the numbers of homes being added to the market remain much slower than the same period last year (-8.1% lower nationally and -14.1% lower in capital cities).  Whilst there is still a lot of property for sale, this trend should help stabilise prices in over the next six to 12 months.

Fingers crossed.

2. Lower interest rates

Lots of noise about this one.  But the yield curve – the difference between the official cash rate and ten-year government bonds – suggests that the cash rate should fall over the coming year and could drop another 0.25% this year.  Recent studies show that the yield curve picks moves in rates 42% of the time, whilst economists have a 14% success rate.  So the yield curve it is!

I tip that the RBA will cut the official rate once more, and in May by 0.25%, after the release of the next round of inflation data.

3. Debt, what debt?

Almost daily we hear the property bears babble on about debt, and how we cannot really afford the home we will live in or have invested in.  Yet despite the headlines saying otherwise, the official statistics show that our real net household wealth is 30% higher than it was just seven years ago.

According to the ABS, last year, on average, households in Australia held asset values of $839,000, partially offset by average liabilities of $120,000.  After adjusting for CPI, our current net average household wealth of $720,000 is 30% more than in 2004.

Net equity in home ownership is about $300,000 across all Australian households and accounts for 40% of total household wealth.  Owner-residents – remember these are official statistics – enjoy owning, on average, four-fifths (81%) of their principal place of residence.  For investors, the average equity holding is 74%.  Seven out of ten Aussie households own or have a mortgage on their home, with 20% holding one or more investment properties.

So where is all this household debt?  Credit cards – no, as the average liability is $2,600 per Australian household.  Small business loans -  maybe, with a $7,000 average blister, but this against the average business asset of $62,000.  Study loans – no, just $2,000 outstanding, Cars – no $2,300 left to pay. Other loans, no – the balance owing is a low $1,000.

I must be missing something here.  What do you think?

via matusikmissive.wordpress.com

Is Seth Klarman the World’s Greatest Living Value Investor?

Warren Buffett is seen by many as the world’s top value investor, and his long-term performance is certainly impressive. But is Buffett really a value investor anymore? The likes of Tesco (even after the recent slump) and IBM hardly hit the classic definition of a value stock.

If you want to learn from a modern-day value investor, a better bet is Seth Klarman. Klarman doesn’t have Buffett’s profile, but he has produced annual returns of around 20% a year for nearly 30 years, simply by buying stuff that’s cheap.

Better yet, unlike your average hedge fund or private equity manager, this performance has been largely achieved without using any borrowed money (leveraging) or by betting on falling asset prices (known as shorting).

Who is Seth Klarman?

Klarman started his investment career working under top value investors Max Heine and Michael Price. After working with them for two years, he went to Harvard University to study for an MBA. On graduating in the early 1980s, he set up his company, the Baupost Group, in Boston, initially looking after the funds of wealthy families.

Apart from his investment performance, Klarman is famous for writing a book on value investing: Margin of Safety – Risk Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor. Published in 1991, the book is now out of print, but second hand copies can be found on Amazon for £1,000 or more.

Having realised that the book is giving away some of his competitive edge, it is not surprising that Klarman has no plans for a second edition.

Nine Lessons to Learn from Seth Klarman

So what do we know about how Klarman invests? Here are some insights into his approach.

What’s your advantage over others?

The investment markets are crowded. Thousands of professional investors spend their days trying to find the next big thing, but they can’t all win. In order to get ahead you need to do something or know something that others don’t. This is not easy. Are you really smarter than the crowd?

Buy what others are selling

Going against the crowd can be profitable. People often sell assets due to temporary, short-term factors. This offers opportunities for investors who can take a longer view. Examples of such situations are litigation, fraud, financial distress and ejection from an index.

Go where others don’t

Look at lots of different asset classes. For example:

• Opportunities often exist in ‘spin offs’ – smaller businesses sold by bigger companies. Professional investors often sell holdings in these companies because they are too small and this temporarily depresses their value, spelling a buying opportunity.

• Research bonds in bankrupt companies: often these bonds sell for a fraction of what they are worth. If the company is turned around, investors can make massive gains. There are often similar opportunities in distressed property.

• Don’t confine yourself to domestic markets. Foreign markets are often less crowded and can be subject to levels of political and regulatory uncertainty that present opportunities. In the preface to the sixth edition of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s book, Security Analysis’, Klarman uses the example of South Korea in the early 2000s where investor pessimism saw multinational companies selling for as low as one or two times their annual cash flow. Smart investors made a killing buying these stocks.

Focus on risk before you start thinking about returns

Research shows the pain of losing 50% of your money far outweighs the pleasure to be had from making a 50% return. To be successful as an investor you must focus your research on the risks of a company’s business model and its industry. Remember that the first rule of investment is not to lose money. Also remember – and this is particularly pertinent to technology companies – that today’s good business may not be tomorrow’s winner.

You are buying a stake in a business, not a piece of paper

Investment success comes from buying the cash flows of businesses for less than they are worth. These cash flows come from the real world, not punting numbers on a computer screen. So focus on free cash flow rather than profits. And look at balance sheets to see risks like too much debt or big pension fund liabilities.

Know when to sell

Value investors start selling when assets are 10-20% below what they think they are worth. Owning fully valued assets is a form of speculation – you are betting on someone paying more than they are worth, not on the market recognising the true value of the assets.

Don’t invest with borrowed money

The ability to sleep well at night is more important than a few more percentage gains.

Don’t rely on the market to provide your investment returns

If bond coupons or stock dividends (paid out by companies) can provide a large chunk of your returns, you are less reliant on fickle and volatile markets for capital gains. Buying bonds below their redemption value is another good strategy.

Don’t be afraid to do nothing

Always hold cash when cheap assets are scarce. Be prepared to wait.

Klarman’s value investing style clearly depends as much on investor psychology as on hard numbers.

However, there is no doubt that most of what he does works well. Considering the nine points noted above before you take the plunge into any asset in the future will almost certainly make you a better investor.

Phil Oakley

Contributing Editor, MoneyWeek (UK)

via moneymorning.com.au

The Depression Everybody Forgot

The 1920-21 depression in the United States was as sharp as it was short. In just three years, production shrunk by a third before rebounding smartly. The drop was almost as savage as that of the Great Depression. Yet the policy response was totally different.

The government of Woodrow Wilson, followed by Warren Harding, cut spending and then cut it some more. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates right up to 1920. This is precisely the opposite of the policy prescriptions recommended today by most economists – which is to spend more and cut rates.


So were Wilson and Harding right, or lucky? And do the early 1920s hold any lessons for today?

A Devastating US Economic Collapse


During World War I, US government spending ballooned, financed by borrowing and by a compliant Federal Reserve. During the war, the Fed was, in the words of New York Federal Reserve Governor Benjamin Strong: “[the Treasury's] agent and servant”.

By 1919, the war was over, but inflation had surged to an annual rate of 27%. In response, the Wilson administration slashed spending. By November 1919, the federal budget was balanced, with federal spending down an astonishing – by 2012 standards – 75% from its peak.

The Fed had only been established in 1913, so the post-war inflation of 1919-20 was the first test of the new system. Under Governor William P Harding, they set about their inflation-busting task with vigour. The various Federal Reserve banks raised interest rates by 244 basis points over the course of eight months, with rates peaking at 7% in June 1920.

The Fed’s aggressive tightening seems to have yanked the economy to a halt. Output peaked in January 1920 when the Fed raised rates by 1.25% – still the sharpest single rise in the entire history of the system. Employment and output fell slowly at first, then collapsed in the summer after the final rate rise in June 1920.

The word collapse is overused – but it’s entirely appropriate in this case. Production dropped by a third in just over a year. Wholesale prices more than halved. Indeed, the price collapse was probably the biggest the US has seen in its entire history. And the fall in output was second only to the Great Depression.

This severe deflation, combined with high nominal interest rates, meant that real (adjusted for inflation) interest rates were exceptionally high. This led to widespread bankruptcies – farmers who’d borrowed to expand their output in response to high food prices during the war and the inflation which followed found they could no longer keep up with interest payments, as high real rates combined with falling prices for their output made the debts unbearable.

Yet the terrible years of 1920-21 aren’t burned into folk memory in the way that the Great Depression is. Why not? The reason that the 1920-21 depression wasn’t ‘Great’, with a capital ‘G’, is that it was short. The economy went from sickening free-fall to rampant roaring ’20s growth without pausing at the bottom.

And that sudden recovery is what’s sparked so much interest in 1921 today.

The Austrians vs. The Monetarists


These crashes are meat and drink to economists. They don’t have labs in which they can simulate all the variables that go into a real-life economy. So big, unusual events like the 1920-21 depression are the only way to put their theories to the test.

But there’s a lot more at stake here than the pride of a few obscure academics. How we understand and digest these big stories will determine how – and whether – we’ll find a way out of the depression begun in 2008.

And as with everything in economics, there’s a lively debate over this story. In this case, we have the Austrians in one corner, and the monetarists in the other.

For Austrian economists like Robert P Murphy, it’s “almost a laboratory experiment showcasing the flaws of both the Keynesian and monetarist prescriptions”. The recession “purged the rottenness out of the system”, says Murphy, setting the scene for the strong decade of growth that followed. Prices fell in 1921, and then markets cleared – once prices had fallen far enough, demand picked up.

So, then, is liquidation and price discovery the cure for sick economies? Do we ‘earn’ a rebound with a firm crash?

Well, there’s certainly no way to spin this as a Keynesian story. Harding succeeded Wilson as president, and enthusiastically continued where his predecessor left off. He oversaw a further fall in government spending throughout the worst of the depression.

But what about monetary policy? Monetarists (who argue that most booms and recessions we see in the real economy are a result of changes in the price or quantity of money – for example, changes in interest rates) would argue that the economic collapse tracked the Fed’s tightening in 1919 and 1920, and then seemed to relent when the Fed cut rates in mid-1921.

But management of monetary policy can only explain half of the monetarist theory. The other half is the demand for loans in the economy. Monetarists would argue that the economy was ‘running hot’ in 1919, just as was the case years later in 1980.

In other words, demand was high – and it’s easier to hold spending down by tightening monetary policy and imposing fiscal austerity than it is to boost spending when the economy is ‘running cold’. When there is strong demand for loans, a rate-cut from 7% to 4% can massively stimulate the economy. Without sufficient demand, 4% interest rates can be high enough to kill off spending entirely.

So like Paul Volcker’s 1981 war on inflation, the 1920-21 depression was deep and short. And it was both brought on by, and cured by, changes in monetary policy.

What Can 1921 Teach Us Today?


Whether 1921 has any relevance today hinges on this question of demand.

In economics, demand is an elusive, theoretical thing – like dark matter. And in the same way that physicists use dark matter to plug holes in their equations, economists need demand to reconcile their theories to reality. For more mainstream economists, the dark matter of demand explains why Fed loosening in 1921 and 1982 created instant growth, but the same trick failed in 1930 and 2009.

Sceptical Austrians don’t rely on such sleights of hand. For Austrians, the economy prospers when markets clear, and markets clear when prices are allowed to adjust. Many see the 1920-21 deflation as a savage ordeal. But for Austrians, that ordeal was necessary to clear markets and it led to years of plenty. And Austrians would argue today that if we’d had a similar collapse post-2008, and had allowed asset prices to find a natural clearing level, rather than bailing out the banks and slashing interest rates, we’d be in a much better state today.

But given that the Fed shows no sign at all of tightening monetary policy any time soon, it doesn’t look like we’ll be getting a chance to test the William P Harding / Warren Harding solution, regardless of how well it might have worked in the ’20s.

Sean Keyes
Contributing Editor, MoneyWeek (UK)

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